Exit polls offer some concerns for networks

By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer
Fri Oct 3, 6:09 PM ET
Barack Obama's tendency through the Democratic primaries to perform better in exit polls than he actually does at the ballot box has some media organizations nervous heading into Election Night.

Television networks want to avoid having their performance become an issue for the third straight presidential election. Their political experts hope that experience gained during the primaries will help things run smoothly Nov. 4.

ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press pool resources to conduct exit polls in select precincts, hoping to glean information about why people vote the way they do and to help predict a winner or loser. A combination of actual vote counts and exit polls is generally used to "call" a state for one candidate or another.

Exit polls frequently overstated Obama's vote during the primaries by as much as 3 percentage points.

"We're concerned about it, but not, `Oh, my god, the exit polls are going to be wrong,'" said NBC News analyst Chuck Todd. "We're aware it's an issue and we're doing everything we can to correct it during our survey work."

Well-educated and young voters are more likely to agree to fill out an exit-poll survey, and both these groups have tended to favor Obama, the experts said.

Enthusiastic voters are also more likely to seek out pollsters, or at least not go out of their way to avoid them. That was true about Obama during the primaries, just as it was for Republican Pat Buchanan during the 1992 New Hampshire primary, said Kathleen Frankovic, CBS News director of surveys.

It was the exit polls' overstatement of John Kerry's support in 2004 that caused problems for the networks, particularly when the first wave of results were leaked on the Web. That led to a "quarantine room" reform that will be in place this year; the people with access to poll results are locked away until at least 5 p.m. EST, giving them time to check for any problems and keeping the early numbers from conveying false information and possibly affecting turnout.

The problems were more serious in 2000, when networks prematurely "called" Florida, and thus the election, for George Bush. It led to a congressional investigation into their practices.

For the Obama-McCain contest, there's concern about whether some voters will say they voted for Obama but, for racial reasons, actually didn't.

Frankovic said this was a real issue for pollsters years ago, but studies show it has virtually gone away. The false reporting was more pronounced when voters were actually interviewed by pollsters, but the current exit poll is a paper survey that voters fill out in private. It was only in the Northeast that Todd said he saw false reporting problems during the primaries.

A presidential election with a black man leading the ticket is uncharted territory for the United States, however.

In general, Republicans tend to be less enthusiastic than Democrats about taking exit polls. An unknown this season will be whether resentment toward the media fomented by John McCain's campaign will make his supporters even less willing to "help" them by taking a survey.

The smallest of factors can play a role in the makeup of a poll; some older voters, for instance, are uncomfortable dealing with young pollsters, and are turned off if they're standing near partisan demonstrators. News organizations this week sued the state of Minnesota to block a state law that would keep pollsters more than 100 feet from a polling place.

Simply knowing all of this will help the news organizations be ready, the experts said.

"I wouldn't overstate the concerns," said Dan Merkle, decision-desk director for ABC News. "They are the kinds of things we've seen before with different elections and different candidates."

Kathleen Carroll, executive editor of The Associated Press, said she's aware of the issues but isn't worried about the Election Night performance. In states where a race is close, the AP relies on vote counts to pick a winner, she said.

"The AP has never run out and called a close race based on exit polls," Carroll said. Where they can be used to make a call is when the exit polls confirm pre-election polls in contests that are lopsided, she said.

Todd said there's been some notable successes with the exit polls this year. For instance, they precisely forecast Hillary Rodham Clinton's surprise win in the New Hampshire primary, something pre-election polling did not, he said.

People focus heavily on the exit polls' forecast of winners and losers and tend to overlook the greater value, in providing insights on what a population is thinking politically, he said.

"Anybody who just goes off exit polls is a fool," he said. "It is a part of the process, but it is not the process."

(This version CORRECTS quote and CLARIFIES that exit polls sometimes used to call lopsided races. Moving on general news, entertainment and financial services.)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081003/ap_en_ot/tv_exit_polls&printer=1;_ylt=AqxH3kVQiQH3Com4qzcz1Q9Y24cA

Keep up the great work! I'm a journalist/videographer. I'll be in either DC, WI, or FL. Email me if you may want some on the ground info.

Best,
Sarah

I am and have been a fan since I first saw you speak on FSTV a few years ago. I have been saying to everyone I know, how do you know the Republicans aren't going to attempt to steal 2008 just like 2004 and 2000. Even though final vote counts were published of the state of Fl. a year after 2000 (that had nothing to do with you), that showed Gore had won, nobody cared, it was never page one on any newspaper, etc., etc. Its seems like an acknowledged fact, at least 2000 and 2004,but even as I try to speak with my husband about it, he seems to just get uncomfortable and asks me "what was the vote count?" Its like people don't want to believe it...collective amnesia. I'm astounded that Obama and McCain are even in the same contest, let alone "neck and neck" (if you belive all the slanted polls). Why can't this country see what the rest of the world sees? Or maybe they do, and in a fair contest, Obama would win by a landslide.
Its frustating because I know a fraction of people see Link or FSTV compared with the general public that watches FOX, CNN, MSNBC and the like.
There is nothing I would love more than to see your expose' on 60 minutes, CNN, MSNBC, etc. If only the masses saw what I saw, read what I read, heard what I heard...My one consulation is when I think "Obama is smart as hell....he knows whats going on....and he's a cagey son of a bicth...he can't be that naive to think that the GOP is going to play this election be the books...he knows better. Maybe he's not showing everything hes got up his sleve."
Aside from this, I would love to donate to your cause, but I am so broke...I got struck with a major illness at age 30, was unable to work at all in 5 years, (by the year 2000), got my pain under control by 2002, and finally won disability in 2006 ($480.00/month) because I have not been able to find any job since 2002.
I would suggest, however, if the DNC and GOP can raise so many millions dor their conventions and parties, there must be some deep pockets you can find. How about Michael Moore? Al Gore? Bill Moyers? These people (especially the latter) care deeply about democracy and they have money and definitely a clue. Have you been able to get on with Laura Flanders at GRIT TV? She's got a lot of fans. And finally, I live in Boulder County (in the woods) near Boulder, Co. It is extremely green, progressive and wealthy. The town I am closest to is Nederland CO and we have a movie theatre that shows movies on the weekend (for a whopping $5.00). If you sent me a copy of anything relevant (that does not make you look like a conspiracy theorist) I bet I could get your films shown in Nederland, and possible in Boulder, at the Boulder theatre. (That's where "E-town" does they're broadcasts from; now picked up on NPR stations coast to coast." I know Lenny Charles well, (from INN) he used to live here. The main stream needs to see your information and don't let anything get in the way.
I don't have money, or any friends with money, but if their is other ways I can help you please let me know.
Sincerely,
Karen

Thanks for letting me vent and thanks for your courageous information.

Nancy brickman

PS Sarah Palen reminds me of George W. Bush with you guessed it, lipstick( and a hairdo)

I'm guessing you know about the efforts in Michigan to deny voters on the basis of home repossessions. Is there anything that can be done to counteract this tactic on the part of the GOP?

http://www.michiganmessenger.com/4076/lose-your-house-lose-your-vote

Shameful and very frightening, especially in a swing state.