http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

The aggregate State model has Obama at 52.7%, unchanged from last week. His expected electoral vote margin is 339-199, slightly reduced from last week’s 343. The calculation is based on the 5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation. The current National model projects Obama’s 5-poll average 2-party share at 53.5%, a slight increase from 53.3%.

The national polls are a current snapshot while state polls are up to three weeks old, so if the nationals are leading indicators, Obama’s state poll numbers may rise over the next few weeks before the convention. State and national models match to within 0.8% and the corresponding popular vote win probabilities are close to the Monte Carlo electoral vote win probability. Obama won 4999 of 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials so his electoral vote win probability is 99.98%. He has a 98.3 % probability of winning the popular vote; it’s calculated by the Excel normal distribution function assuming a 2.5% MoE.

The base case scenario assumption for both state and national models is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. The reason for this assumption is that he is the presumed challenger; McCain is running for Bush’s third term.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

The projections assume the election is held today and that there is zero fraud. The model also accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent. The summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming that a) 3% of total votes cast are uncounted and Obama has 75%, and b) 4% of his votes are switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, the vote share calculations indicate that Obama would have a losing 262 electoral votes and a 49.9% vote share. Of course, for higher switched vote and uncounted vote rates, Obama would lose by larger margins. Two graphs display the effects of a combination range of uncounted and switch vote scenarios on the EV and popular vote (see the links below).

According to the Census Bureau, 5.4m (4.9%) of total votes cast in 2000 were uncounted (approximately 4.0m were Gore votes). In 2004, 3.4m (2.7%) votes were uncounted (2.5m were Kerry votes). The Election Calculator model (see below) indicates that 5.3m (7.9%) Kerry votes (1 in 13) were switched to Bush.

The Democratic True vote is always greater than the Recorded vote.

The media wants to keep it close even while McCain dissembles.

McCain supports the most unpopular president in history.

A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

In the Three-Card Monte con, the mark is tricked into betting that he can find the money card among three face-down cards. A rigged election is the Vote Scam equivalent of Three-card Monte. What you see in the exit polls is not what you get in the recorded count; the recorded vote is never equal to the True vote. In this con game, the voter is the mark. Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election.

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