BBC journalist warns against voter irregularities
By Dwayne Robinson
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 18, 2008
The BBC journalist who uncovered possible voter fraud in the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections told a South Florida crowd Sunday those same forces that led to President Bush's victories will not "steal" this year's election.
"They've already stolen it," Greg Palast told a crowd at the Palm Beach Democratic Club on Sunday. "But, you can steal it back."
Speaking before a crowd of more than 400 at the Kravis Center, Palast outlined what he said were Republicans erasing black, homeless and military voters from voter registration rolls, possibly preventing millions from casting votes in razor-thin races.
The latest example came in 2004, he said, in a method known as vote caging.
There, voters' registrations were challenged after registered letters with "do not forward" instructions addressed to, for instance, black college students on summer vacation or naval officers on active duty overseas were returned as undeliverable.
"Go to Baghdad. Lose your vote. Mission Accomplished," Palast quipped.
In Florida's 2000 presidential contest, nearly 100,000 voters, many incorrectly identified as felons, were expunged from voter rolls, Palast added.
Hawking his book - "Armed Madhouse" - he urged the enthusiastic crowd to support his Palast Investigative Fund to research voter suppression schemes.
Some Democrats Sunday viewed the electoral system as skewed against their party and saw the only means to overcome that this year was through overwhelming numbers.
"Voter turnout is everything for us in November," said liberal talk radio host Randi Rhodes, who opened for Palast. "We haven't been able to have our votes counted because of the games people play.
"That ends in November."
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Out now! Live from the Armed Madhouse
Download the Steal Back Your Vote! Investigative Comic Book - Available right now for FREE! The guide includes a warning from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and is sponsored by Voto Latino, Change to Win and Jesse Jackson Rainbow/PUSH Coalition
My daughter was in the Peace Corp in Guatamela in the 2000 election year, And they were not allowed to vote. Some of the upper statesmen said the ballots had not been delivered!!!! So their right as an American to vote was denied!! Of course most of the Peace Corp kids were for Gore. Thanks Jane Thanks for keeping it real.
When Vote Caging is Not Enough to Steal It...
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
The aggregate State model has Obama at 52.7%, unchanged from last week. His expected electoral vote margin is 339-199, slightly reduced from last week’s 343. The calculation is based on the 5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation. The current National model projects Obama’s 5-poll average 2-party share at 53.5%, a slight increase from 53.3%.
The national polls are a current snapshot while state polls are up to three weeks old, so if the nationals are leading indicators, Obama’s state poll numbers may rise over the next few weeks before the convention. State and national models match to within 0.8% and the corresponding popular vote win probabilities are close to the Monte Carlo electoral vote win probability. Obama won 4999 of 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials so his electoral vote win probability is 99.98%. He has a 98.3 % probability of winning the popular vote; it’s calculated by the Excel normal distribution function assuming a 2.5% MoE.
The base case scenario assumption for both state and national models is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. The reason for this assumption is that he is the presumed challenger; McCain is running for Bush’s third term.
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The projections assume the election is held today and that there is zero fraud. The model also accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent. The summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming that a) 3% of total votes cast are uncounted and Obama has 75%, and b) 4% of his votes are switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, the vote share calculations indicate that Obama would have a losing 262 electoral votes and a 49.9% vote share. Of course, for higher switched vote and uncounted vote rates, Obama would lose by larger margins. Two graphs display the effects of a combination range of uncounted and switch vote scenarios on the EV and popular vote (see the links below).
According to the Census Bureau, 5.4m (4.9%) of total votes cast in 2000 were uncounted (approximately 4.0m were Gore votes). In 2004, 3.4m (2.7%) votes were uncounted (2.5m were Kerry votes). The Election Calculator model (see below) indicates that 5.3m (7.9%) Kerry votes (1 in 13) were switched to Bush.
The Democratic True vote is always greater than the Recorded vote.
The media wants to keep it close even while McCain dissembles.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
In the Three-Card Monte con, the mark is tricked into betting that he can find the money card among three face-down cards. A rigged election is the Vote Scam equivalent of Three-card Monte. What you see in the exit polls is not what you get in the recorded count; the recorded vote is never equal to the True vote. In this con game, the voter is the mark. Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election.
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